Mehdi MIKOU participates at Scenarios Forum 2025 in Leeds

Temperatures in Europe are rising at twice the rate observed in other continents, posing unprecedented challenges to ecosystems, livelihoods and economies. High-income groups, through their consumption and investment patterns, are disproportionately contributing to the rise of climate extremes around the world. At the same time, when climate extreme events occur, low-income groups tend to be more vulnerable to their impacts. Yet, critical gaps persist in understanding how income groups within European countries are differently exposed to extreme climate events. By integrating high-resolution disposable income data with climate and hydrological models, we quantify present and future income-based inequalities in exposure to extreme climate events under combinations of socioeconomic and warming scenarios. Our analysis reveals systematic inequalities within European countries: high-income groups reside in areas with significantly lower exposure to extreme heatwaves, cold spells, wildfires, riverine flooding, and coastal flooding, while low-income populations are relatively more exposed. We found that these inequalities will persist throughout the 21st century, though the total exposed population varies substantially depending on climate scenarios. Our findings underscore the urgent need for country-level tailored adaptation strategies that explicitly address exposure inequalities, alongside ambitious mitigation policies to curb escalating climate impacts.