Exciting news — our paper, “High-resolution income projections over the 21st century in Europe consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” has been published in Environmental Research Letters!
In this study, we developed a novel methodology to generate decadal projections of per capita disposable income at 1 km resolution across Europe from 2015 to 2100. These projections are aligned with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) — a set of global development scenarios extensively used in climate research.
We go beyond previous studies based on GDP indicators, to focus on disposable income, which better reflects household-level economic vulnerability to environmental change. By incorporating inequality metrics, settlement expansion trends, and population projections, our maps offer a comprehensive lens through which to observe long-term income change.
📄 Read the full paper: DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/adcb53
📊 Download the dataset: https://doi.org/10.57745/SBXXRD
Why does this matter? Understanding how income distribution may shift under different development scenarios is critical for evaluating social vulnerability to climate change. For example:
- Under SSP3 and SSP4, income inequality widens, and over 30% of Europeans may be at risk of poverty by 2100.
- In contrast, SSP1 and SSP5 — which assume higher economic growth — show a significant decline in poverty across the continent.
These insights can help researchers, urban planners, and policymakers to design just and equitable climate adaptation strategies — ensuring that future investments are directed where they are most needed.